PrimeRFP Insights

Fewer, Larger Orders: Federal Task-Order Buying Through August 2026

Award descriptions matching “task order” obligated $39.90B across 27,268 orders in the 12 months through 2026-08-04. A SCOUT one-month lookback on 2026-09-10 now prints 1,869 orders / $2.31B (actions 2026-08-12 → 2026-09-04).

Published September 10, 2026About 9 min read

Data as of September 10, 2026 · Source: SCOUT

Agencies placed fewer, larger task orders. Monthly value rose 9.2% while volume fell 24.6%. Average order size moved from $1.01M to $1.46M.

Key takeaways

The 12-month print is $39.90B across 27,268 orders whose descriptions match “task order” (2025-09-14 → 2026-08-04). That is a keyword series, not a contract-type filter, and not a market-size quote.
Value cadence +9.2% ($3.43B/mo → $3.75B/mo). Volume cadence −24.6% (3,398/mo → 2,563/mo). Average order size +44.8%. All ten comparable agencies cut volume; six raised value.
A SCOUT one-month lookback on 2026-09-10 now prints 1,869 orders / $2.31B / $1.24M average, with actions 2026-08-12 → 2026-09-04. The Sep 9 extract’s one-month lookback had returned zero rows.
In the extract’s 24-day window (12 Jul – 4 Aug), DoD filed 5 orders against about 677 expected (0.7%) — a floor. In the new lookback, agency=DoD returns 100 orders / $273.0M. Do not mix the two windows.
DHS +82.0% value on near-flat volume (−4.7%), at 119% of trend. DOE +70.8% on 773 large orders. HHS +38.6% on 1,966 smaller orders. NASA −34.5% and VA −23.9% are real declines.
Unobligated ceiling of $215.2B (84.4% of $255.1B) is parent-IDIQ headroom, not addressable demand. The ceiling-to-obligation ratio is 5.0x / 6.4x / 41.3x as the window shortens.

Read this first

Two windows sit on this page. Do not add them together.

The 12-month print and the 24-day short window are from a 2026-09-09 extract that ended on 2026-08-04. In that extract a one-month lookback returned zero rows after a snapshot block, so the short window used there is 24 days (12 Jul – 4 Aug 2026). DoD in that window filed 5 orders against about 677 expected — 0.7% of trend — and is a floor.
The 30-day pulse is a live SCOUT pull dated 2026-09-10. get_award_summary(query="task order", months_back=1) now returns 1,869 orders / $2.31B obligated. The lookback is labeled 2026-08-11 → 2026-09-10; actions in the cache run 2026-08-12 → 2026-09-04. Same keyword series, later snapshot.

This is a dated buying-patterns note, not the monthly SCOUT Signal issue. That series publishes from the backend when a clean calendar-month print is ready.

The 12-month print

From 2025-09-14 to 2026-08-04, award descriptions matching “task order” obligated $39.90B across 27,268 orders. The average monthly obligation rate is $3.75B.

Metric	Early monthly rate	Recent monthly rate	Change
Value	$3.43B	$3.75B	+9.2%
Volume	3,398 orders	2,563 orders	−24.6%
Average order size	$1.01M	$1.46M	+44.8%

Every one of the ten comparable agencies posted lower task-order volume. Six posted higher value. That is consolidation, not acceleration. Incomplete recent data biases recent rates downward, so the value gain is the firmer finding and the volume drop is overstated.

Do not quote $39.90B as the size of the federal task-order market. “Task order” here is a keyword match on award description, not a contract-type filter. The comparisons are internally consistent. The absolute total is not a market census.

Who gained on value

Early-versus-recent monthly obligation rates, named agencies only. Volume percentages are published only where the extract stated them.

Agency	Value cadence	Early $/mo	Recent $/mo	Notes
DHS	+82.0%	$349.4M	$635.8M	Volume −4.7%. Filed at 119% of trend in the latest window — not a lag artifact.
DOE	+70.8%	$382.5M	$653.4M	773 orders averaging $8.99M. Fuel-cycle / enrichment ~$2.70B; environmental cleanup ~$2.22B.
HHS	+38.6%	$106.6M	$147.8M	1,966 orders at $0.80M average. Highest count, lowest ticket of the three.
VA	−23.9%	—	—	Filed at or above trend in the latest window. The decline is real.
NASA	−34.5%	—	—	Filed at or above trend in the latest window. The decline is real.

Dollar rates for NASA and VA were not in the extract. Their cadence percentages were.

The 30-day pulse

SCOUT, 2026-09-10: query="task order", months_back=1, obligations_only. 1,869 orders / $2.31B obligated / $1.24M average. Actions in cache: 2026-08-12 → 2026-09-04. Ceiling in the slice is $78.32B (33.9× obligated). That ratio is vehicle headroom, not demand.

Slice	Orders	Obligated
All (one-month lookback)	1,869	$2.31B
DHS	310	$527.9M
DOE	75	$343.3M
GSA	116	$319.1M
VA	101	$287.5M
DoD (`agency=Department of Defense`)	100	$273.0M
HHS	243	$104.3M
HSGS-Ameresco	8	$200.5M
Savannah River Mission Completion	2	$169.4M
Booz Allen Hamilton Inc.	27	$121.2M

DHS led the named agencies on both dollars and order count. DoD is no longer an empty floor in this later snapshot; it is also not a completed monthly trend. Agency rows except DoD are SCOUT top_agencies. The DoD row is a separate agency= rollup — military departments do not appear as a single top_agencies line.

The 24-day extract window

12 Jul – 4 Aug 2026: 1,304 orders / $1.79B / $1.37M average.

Slice	Orders	Obligated
All (24-day)	1,304	$1.79B
DOE	48	$550.0M
DHS	210	$494.3M
BWXT Enrichment Operations	1	$120.0M
United Cleanup Oak Ridge	1	$104.3M

DOE led on dollars. DHS led on order count. Two single orders cleared $100M, both DOE-site work. Six awardees in this window do not appear in the 12-month top 15; the extract weights them toward DOE-site cleanup and fuel-cycle entities and does not name the other four. The leaderboard reflects who has reported, not who is buying.

Ceiling is not demand

84.4% of $255.1B is unobligated, or $215.2B. Do not treat that as addressable demand.

Window	Ceiling ÷ obligated
18 months	5.0x
12 months	6.4x
24 days	41.3x

The ratio moves inversely with window length. That is the signature of parent-IDIQ ceilings attaching to the vehicle rather than to the orders in scope. Resolve headroom per vehicle before sizing a capture plan on it.

What this page can and cannot count

Source	Status	Through / rate
12-month extract	Complete	2025-09-14 → 2026-08-04
30-day pulse (SCOUT, 2026-09-10)	1,869 orders / $2.31B	Actions 2026-08-12 → 2026-09-04
24-day extract window	Short window from the Sep 9 extract	2026-07-12 → 2026-08-04
Civilian agencies (24-day extract)	80–119% of own trend	Same extract window
DoD task orders (24-day extract)	5 filed vs ~677 expected (0.7%)	Floor in that window
DoD task orders (30-day pulse)	100 orders / $273.0M	Same SCOUT lookback

Limitations

The Sep 9 extract still has no transactions after 2026-08-04, so it has no August calendar month.
The 30-day pulse is a one-month lookback, not a calendar August or September print. Last action in cache is 2026-09-04.
DoD in the extract’s 24-day window is a floor. DoD in the 2026-09-10 lookback is 100 orders / $273.0M — a later snapshot, not a completed monthly trend.
“Task order” is an award-description keyword, not a contract-type filter.
Ceiling-to-obligation ratios of 5.0x / 6.4x / 41.3x (extract) and 33.9x (30-day pulse) are vehicle headroom, not order demand.
This page is not a substitute for the monthly SCOUT Signal civilian-obligation print.

Documented SCOUT queries

Every material number on this page must come from one of these queries. Empty result fields mean the pull has not been run yet.

to_12mo_totals
buying-patterns extract (2026-09-09)(award-description keyword “task order”; window 2025-09-14 → 2026-08-04)
Keyword match, not a contract-type filter. Do not quote as federal task-order market size.
Ran: 2026-09-09 · Result: $39.90B obligated · 27,268 orders · avg monthly value $3.75B. Early vs recent: value $3.43B/mo → $3.75B/mo (+9.2%); volume 3,398/mo → 2,563/mo (−24.6%); avg size $1.01M → $1.46M (+44.8%).
to_30d_pulse
get_award_summary(query=task order; months_back=1; contract_type_filter=obligations_only; year_type=calendar; breakouts=funding_agency; top_n=10)
Keyword match on award description, same series as the extract. Sep 9 extract months_back=1 returned 0 rows (snapshot blocked).
Ran: 2026-09-10 · Result: 1,869 awards · $2,309,753,856 obligated · $1,235,823 avg · ceiling $78,320,249,198. Actions 2026-08-12 → 2026-09-04. Lookback label 2026-08-11 → 2026-09-10. top_agencies: DHS 310/$527,908,096; DOE 75/$343,319,328; GSA 116/$319,112,960; VA 101/$287,524,448; HHS 243/$104,342,712. top_awardees: HSGS-Ameresco $200,456,064 (8); Savannah River Mission Completion $169,400,000 (2); Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. $121,237,944 (27).
to_30d_pulse_dod
get_award_summary(query=task order; agency=Department of Defense; months_back=1; contract_type_filter=obligations_only; year_type=calendar)
Separate agency= rollup. DoD does not appear as a single top_agencies row (military departments split).
Ran: 2026-09-10 · Result: 100 awards · $272,999,904 obligated · $2,729,999 avg · ceiling $21,621,113,181. Actions 2026-08-12 → 2026-09-04.
to_24d_substitute
buying-patterns extract (2026-09-09)(months_back=2; 2026-07-12 → 2026-08-04)
DoD readings are a floor. Leaderboard is who reported, not who is buying.
Ran: 2026-09-09 · Result: 1,304 TOs / $1.79B / $1.37M avg. DOE $550.0M (48). DHS $494.3M (210). BWXT Enrichment Operations $120.0M. United Cleanup Oak Ridge $104.3M. DoD 5 filed vs ~677 expected (0.7%). Civilian agencies 80–119% of trend.
to_agency_cadence
buying-patterns extract (2026-09-09)(early vs recent monthly obligation rate; ten comparable agencies)
NASA and VA dollar rates were not in the extract. Both filed at or above trend in the latest window.
Ran: 2026-09-09 · Result: All ten cut volume; six raised value. Named: DHS +82.0% ($349.4M → $635.8M, volume −4.7%, 119% of trend); DOE +70.8% ($382.5M → $653.4M, 773 orders, $8.99M avg, fuel-cycle ~$2.70B + cleanup ~$2.22B); HHS +38.6% ($106.6M → $147.8M, 1,966 orders, $0.80M avg); NASA −34.5%; VA −23.9%.
to_ceiling_headroom
buying-patterns extract (2026-09-09)(ceiling vs obligated by window length)
Parent-IDIQ ceilings attach to the vehicle. Not addressable demand.
Ran: 2026-09-09 · Result: 84.4% of $255.1B unobligated = $215.2B. Ratio 5.0x at 18 months, 6.4x at 12 months, 41.3x across 24 days.

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Data & Methodology

Federal contract and award data sourced from government procurement systems — including FPDS-NG, SAM.gov, and related federal data repositories. PrimeRFP SCOUT ingests, normalizes, and continuously updates records as agencies publish them. Reporting timelines vary by agency; some components (particularly DoD) carry a 60–90 day lag relative to award execution.

Dataset coverage — ≥ $100K floor

All intelligence on this page and within SCOUT is filtered to federal contract awards whose current total award value is $100K or more. PrimeRFP applies this floor at the award level (on current_total_value_award), not per-transaction, so large awards split across many mid-size obligation lines are retained in full. PrimeRFP's own empirical sampling against the raw USASpending dataset shows this threshold captures 98%+ of total federal contract dollars while excluding a long tail of micro-purchases, small modifications, and administrative actions — the trade-off that makes market intelligence tractable without distorting the dollar picture. Coverage: 560,000+ active contract awards and 2.5M+ unique awardees, including small-business set-asides, task orders, and mid-market opportunities.

Award identification: Each record is keyed by federal Award ID (PIID). Task orders recorded as independent awards appear as separate rows. IDIQs and their task orders are tracked distinctly.

Why SCOUT dollar figures differ from published annual totals: Per-agency dollar figures on SCOUT intelligence pages aggregate all USASpending transaction records — including base contract awards, task orders, delivery orders, and modifications to existing contracts. Annual federal contract obligation figures cited in industry reports (e.g., FY2025: $833.8B per Bloomberg Government) count only new prime award actions in the fiscal year, excluding mods. An IDIQ vehicle (like OASIS+) carries no obligation at award — only task orders issued against it are counted. SCOUT's transaction-level aggregates are larger because they capture the full activity picture across a contract's lifecycle, making them useful for competitive analysis and pipeline sizing rather than year-over-year spending comparison.

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