PrimeRFP Insights
Government Task Order & Procurement Velocity Trends
Federal task orders through October 2, 2026 obligated $46.5 billion across 30,805 awards. Monthly value rose 7.9% while order volume fell 24.7%.
Data as of · Source: SCOUT
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LinkedInMonthly buying patterns · October 2026 edition
$46.5B
TO obligated
12 months
30,805
Task orders
12 months
$3.9B
Avg monthly
Rate
+7.9%
Cadence
Acceleration
81.7%
Ceiling
Headroom
Summary for capture teams
Federal task orders through October 2, 2026 obligated $46.5 billion across 30,805 awards. Monthly value rose 7.9% while order volume fell 24.7%. Average order size moved from $1.05 million to $1.51 million, so capture teams are looking at fewer shots on goal and a larger check on each one, not a bigger market. The Department of Energy is the fastest accelerator, up 64.1% to $636.3 million a month on about 74 orders at $8.58 million each, concentrated in nuclear cleanup and enrichment. The Department of Homeland Security is the buyer still offering both dollars and count: value up 54.5%, volume down only 9.3%. The Department of Defense remains the anchor at $13.6 billion, 29% of this series, but its monthly rate fell 15.9% and its order volume fell 36.2%. Of the $254.2 billion ceiling in scope, $207.7 billion is unobligated (81.7%). That is room on vehicles that already exist, not demand to put in a pipeline. These figures are awards whose descriptions match “task order,” federal actions over $100,000, not a census of the federal task-order market. Refreshed October 9, 2026 from USASpending via PrimeRFP SCOUT. The latest pulse covers 23 reported days, September 10 through October 2, and is a floor.
- DOE is a teaming problem, not a bid-volume problem. About 74 task orders a month at $8.58 million each. The prime slots in nuclear cleanup and enrichment are already held. The opening is a subcontract under Savannah River Mission Completion, Hanford Tank Waste Operations & Closure, Orano Federal Services, or American Centrifuge.
- DHS is where count and dollars still meet. Value up 54.5%, volume down only 9.3%, and $1.50 billion across 394 orders in the latest 23 reported days. That is the place to hunt order count. DOT is the smaller-order entry, about 231 a month at $0.55 million.
- A vehicle seat is worth more than a new pursuit. Volume is down 24.7% market-wide in this series, and 43.9% of awards drew a single offer. Audit the vehicles you or a teaming partner already hold before spending capture time on a competitive solicitation.
This is the market print. A demo applies it to the vehicles and agencies you chase.
Book a demo- Is federal task-order spending growing in 2026?
- No. Through October 2, 2026, monthly obligated value on awards whose descriptions match “task order” rose 7.9%, from $3.59 billion to $3.88 billion, while monthly order volume fell 24.7%, from 3,410 orders to 2,567. Average order size rose from $1.05 million to $1.51 million. Against the full 18-month baseline, monthly value is up only 2.5%.
- Which federal agencies are accelerating task-order buying?
- The Department of Energy is the fastest, up 64.1% to $636.3 million a month on about 74 task orders, at $8.58 million each. The Department of Homeland Security is up 54.5% and kept volume better than any other major buyer, down 9.3%. The Department of Transportation is up 21.1% at the lowest average order size among major buyers, $0.55 million. No agency in this comparison grew order volume.
- Does $207.7 billion in unobligated ceiling mean there is $207.7 billion left to win?
- No. $207.7 billion is 81.7% of the $254.2 billion ceiling on vehicles already in this keyword set. It is parent-vehicle headroom, not addressable demand. Resolve it vehicle by vehicle before sizing a capture pipeline on it.
This is the public October print, not the monthly SCOUT Signal. The prior print is task-order buying through August 2026.
30-day pulse
Most recent reporting window: Sep 10 – Oct 2, 2026
23 days of actions actually covered — not a full 30. A one-month query returns only what has cleared the reporting lag.
2,420
TOs reported
$5.5B
Obligated value
$2.26M
Avg value / TO
DHS
Leading agency · $1.5B
Top six agencies in the window
DHS
$1,501.4M
394 TOs · $3.81M avg
GSA
$1,038.9M
152 TOs · $6.83M avg
DOT
$492.0M
370 TOs · $1.33M avg
DOE
$478.1M
98 TOs · $4.88M avg
NASA
$344.1M
203 TOs · $1.70M avg
HHS
$320.1M
262 TOs · $1.22M avg
Observations
What cleared in the short window
Three single-action task orders cleared $100M. Clark Construction took $332.0M on one order, Motorola Solutions $139.6M on one, and BLL Harbert International $109.0M on one. Together those three actions are 10.6% of the window’s obligated value.
Five awardees in the 30-day top 10 are absent from the 12-month top 15. Clark Construction ($332.0M), Thunderyard Liberty JV ($294.9M across 36 orders), Crowley Government Services ($273.4M / 19), Motorola Solutions ($139.6M / 1), and BLL Harbert ($109.0M / 1). Thunderyard and Crowley are volume entrants, which makes them the two worth watching.
Value is running hot relative to volume. The window’s $2.26M average order is 50% above the 12-month average of $1.51M. Annualizing the 23-day pace gives about $7.1B a month against a 12-month rate of $3.9B. Read that as directional only. The newest and largest actions clear the lag first.
DOD does not appear in the 30-day top 10. DOD is 29% of 12-month obligated value and 10,058 task orders, so its absence here is a reporting-lag artifact. DOD actions clear USASpending more slowly than civilian ones. Treat the DOD line in this window as unreported, not as zero.
GSA is the value-density standout. $6.83M per task order on 152 actions — the highest average of any agency in the window, and 2.9× the window-wide average.
USASpending publishes federal contract actions 22–30 days behind the action date. This window covers actions dated Sep 10 – Oct 2, 2026. Agencies and awardees with low or missing figures here are likely unreported rather than inactive, and every 30-day total is a floor that will revise upward.
Cadence acceleration
+7.9%
Monthly obligated value rose from $3.59B in the early 6-month period to $3.88B in the recent 12 months, while monthly task-order volume fell 24.7%. Average order value rose from $1.05M to $1.51M, up 44%.
Fastest-momentum agency
DOE +64.1%
$636.3M per month now versus $388M in the early period, on about 74 orders a month. DOE’s own volume fell 18.8%. Nuclear cleanup and enrichment work is driving the dollars.
Remaining ceiling
$207.7B
Unobligated capacity on in-scope vehicles — 81.7% of the $254.2B ceiling, up 5.6 points from the 18-month window. This is parent-vehicle headroom, not addressable demand.
Agency breakdown — 12 months
Oct 15, 2025 – Oct 2, 2026
Momentum compares the recent 12-month monthly rate with the early 6-month rate, derived by subtracting the 12-month window from the 18-month window. Momentum is value-based. No agency grew task-order volume. DHS retained volume best, at −9.3%.
| Agency | TOs | Obligated | Avg / TO | Rate / mo | Momentum | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DOD | 10,058 | $13.6B | $1.35M | $1,133.3M | −15.9% | Cooling |
| DHS | 2,849 | $8.5B | $2.98M | $706.9M | +54.5% | Accelerating |
| DOE | 890 | $7.6B | $8.58M | $636.3M | +64.1% | Value surge |
| GSA | 1,473 | $5.1B | $3.45M | $423.5M | +18.7% | Accelerating |
| HHS | 2,356 | $1.7B | $0.71M | $139.3M | +0.9% | Stable |
| VA | 1,332 | $1.7B | $1.25M | $138.5M | +3.3% | Stable |
| DOT | 2,774 | $1.5B | $0.55M | $126.9M | +21.1% | Accelerating |
| NASA | 1,539 | $1.3B | $0.86M | $110.7M | −2.8% | Stable |
| ED | 324 | $1.2B | $3.61M | $97.4M | −15.3% | Cooling |
| DOS | 1,252 | $0.8B | $0.62M | $65.1M | −9.7% | Cooling |
| USDA | 714 | $0.6B | $0.88M | $52.1M | — | No 18-mo base |
| TREAS | 489 | $0.6B | $1.16M | $47.3M | — | No 18-mo base |
| DOC | 379 | $0.5B | $1.32M | $41.7M | — | No 18-mo base |
| SSA | 207 | $0.4B | $2.05M | $35.3M | — | No 18-mo base |
| DOI | 783 | $0.4B | $0.54M | $35.3M | — | No 18-mo base |
USDA, Treasury, Commerce, SSA, and Interior rank in the 12-month top 15 but fall outside the 18-month top 10 SCOUT returned, so no early-period rate can be derived for them. Every positive momentum figure in this table is value per order rising, not more orders.
Obligated value by agency
$ billions
Task-order volume by agency
Count of task orders
12-month vs 18-month window
The shift is compositional, not expansionary
Recent 12 months against the full 18-month window, and the early 6-month period derived from their difference.
| Metric | 12-month | 18-month | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total task orders | 30,805 | 51,267 | +20,462 in the extra 6 months |
| Obligated value | $46.5B | $68.1B | +$21.6B in the extra 6 months |
| Ceiling value | $254.2B | $284.8B | +$30.6B |
| Ceiling headroom | 81.7% | 76.1% | +5.6 pts |
| Avg task orders / month | 2,567 | 2,848 | −281 / month |
| Avg value / month | $3.88B | $3.78B | +2.5% |
Agency monthly rate — early 6 months vs recent 12 months
$ millions per month. Gray is the early period. Teal is the recent 12 months.
Aggregate monthly value is up only 2.5% against the 18-month average, and it is landing in a different place. DOD’s monthly rate fell $214M while DHS and DOE together added $498M. Four agencies absorbed essentially all of the upward movement, and all four did it on fewer task orders. Roughly the same money is moving through 24.7% fewer transactions.
Top awardees — 12 months
Obligated value, order count, and primary agency
Primary agency is shown where SCOUT reports a corporate-family rollup. “Not reported” means no rollup came back for that entity in this window. It is not an absence of agency activity. Figures are de-duplicated by SAM UEI and are window totals, not lifetime company totals.
- 01Amentum Holdings$2,701.6M509 TOsDOD
- 02Southwest Valley Constructors$1,720.0M1 TODHS
- 03Booz Allen Hamilton$1,330.2M368 TOsGSA
- 04Goodrich Corporation (RTX)$1,136.6M129 TOsDOD
- 05Savannah River Mission Completion$1,102.2M46 TOsDOE
- 06Hanford Tank Waste Operations & Closure$979.8M16 TOsDOE
- 07American Centrifuge Operating$900.0M1 TONot reported
- 08General Matter$899.9M3 TOsNot reported
- 09Orano Federal Services$899.6M5 TOsNot reported
- 10The GEO Group$855.9M76 TOsNot reported
- 11General Dynamics Mission Systems$801.3M294 TOsNot reported
- 12Science Applications International$764.2M226 TOsDOD
Four of the twelve largest awardees sit in nuclear cleanup or enrichment — Savannah River, Hanford, American Centrifuge, and Orano — and together they account for $3.88B. Three awardees reached the list on a single task order. That is what a high-ceiling, low-count market looks like.
Strategic recommendations
Ordered by momentum, with the capacity play last
Priority 1 · DOE +64.1%
Chase the nuclear cleanup and enrichment build-out
DOE’s monthly rate went from $388M to $636M on about 74 task orders a month, the highest average order value in the market at $8.58M. Target subcontract and teaming positions under Savannah River Mission Completion, Hanford Tank Waste Operations & Closure, Orano Federal Services, and American Centrifuge rather than competing for those prime slots directly.
Priority 2 · DHS +54.5%
DHS is the agency still holding volume
DHS added about $250M a month while shedding 9.3% of its order volume, the best volume retention measured. It also led the latest window at $1.50B across 394 task orders. This is the place where both the money and the number of orders are still reachable.
Priority 3 · DOT +21.1%
Use DOT as the smaller-order entry point
DOT runs the second-highest order volume at about 231 a month, at the lowest average value of any major buyer, $0.55M. Its rate still grew 21.1%, and it stayed in the 30-day window at $492.0M across 370 orders.
Capacity play · $207.7B unobligated
Read the ceiling as vehicle headroom
81.7% of the $254.2B in-scope ceiling is unobligated, and headroom widened 5.6 points. Ceiling grew $30.6B while obligations moved less. That is capacity on vehicles already in this keyword set, not a demand quote. A seat you or a teaming partner already hold is the practical question. 43.9% of awards in this market drew a single offer, and the median award drew two.
Empirical findings
What the 12-month, 18-month, and 30-day pulls support
The market is consolidating, not growing
Monthly obligated value rose 7.9% between the early 6-month period and the recent 12 months — $3.59B to $3.88B — while monthly task-order volume fell 24.7%, from 3,410 orders to 2,567. Against the full 18-month baseline the aggregate monthly rate is up only 2.5%. For anyone forecasting pipeline off order count, that is a structural change in this series, not a one-month dip.
DOE is the fastest accelerator
DOE lifted its monthly rate from $388M to $636.3M on 890 task orders over twelve months — about 74 a month, among the lowest counts — at $8.58M per order. None of that growth came from more orders. Four of the market’s largest awardees in this window belong to nuclear cleanup and enrichment.
DOD has turned, and it is still the anchor
DOD’s monthly rate fell 15.9%, from $1,347M to $1,133M, and its order volume fell 36.2% — from 1,314 orders a month to 838, the steepest volume decline in the table. It still holds $13.6B and 10,058 task orders, 29% of obligated value. Its $214M monthly decline is most of what the $498M combined gain at DHS and DOE had to overcome. Education shows the same pattern at smaller scale, down 15.3% in value and 33.3% in volume.
DHS led a short, hot pulse
DHS reported $1.50B across 394 task orders in 23 days. The window’s $2.26M average runs 50% above the 12-month average. Thunderyard Liberty JV ($294.9M / 36) and Crowley Government Services ($273.4M / 19) are new volume entrants relative to the 12-month top 15. DOD’s absence from this window’s top ten is a lag artifact, so the window’s totals are a floor.
Ceiling headroom widened, and it is still not demand
$207.7B of the $254.2B in-scope ceiling is unobligated — 81.7%, up from 76.1% in the 18-month window. Read that next to the volume decline as vehicle capacity being added faster than it is being obligated in this keyword set. It is not a spending wave you can size, and it is not addressable demand. Resolve headroom per vehicle before treating any of it as pipeline.
Methodology and gaps
How this print was built
Federal contract awards over $100,000 from USASpending, read through PrimeRFP SCOUT on a transaction-level obligation basis. The population is awards whose description matches the keyword “task order.” IDIQ and IDV base vehicles carrying zero obligation are excluded.
Three windows were pulled: 12 months (Oct 15, 2025 – Oct 2, 2026), 18 months (Apr 18, 2025 – Oct 2, 2026), and 1 month (Sep 10 – Oct 2, 2026). The early 6-month period is the 18-month window minus the 12-month window. Momentum is the percentage change from that early monthly rate to the recent 12-month monthly rate. Ceiling headroom is (ceiling − obligated) ÷ ceiling. Monthly rates divide window totals by the nominal window length in months.
The 30-day window covers 23 days of actions, and its latest action was 7 days old on the Oct 9 refresh. DOD is missing from that window’s top ten despite holding 29% of 12-month value. Agency momentum covers the ten largest buyers with an 18-month base, not a full census. Next scheduled run of this series: Nov 9, 2026.