SCOUT Signal
SCOUT Signal · September 2026
Charles Sanders, PrimeRFP ·
Civilian-agency onlyDoD FPDS incomplete (90-day lag)Data through 2026-08-31
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LinkedInHeadline numbers
$28.55B
Civilian obligated
184,356
Civilian actions
-15.3%
Pool shift · VA SDVOSB actions in 2026-08
The month in brief
Civilian agencies obligated $28.55B in 2026-08, -30.8% from 2026-07. The largest single-vendor share in 2026-08 stayed under 10% of the civilian month. The civilian total is $28.55B with no ex-outlier correction required. Meanwhile VA's service-disabled veteran-owned contract actions fell 15.3%. The same agency, the same month, the large-vendor lane expanding while the small-business lane contracted. Figures are civilian-agency obligations through 2026-08-31; DoD FPDS for this window is labeled incomplete.
Charts
Civilian obligated $17.92B in 2025-03 through $28.55B in 2026-08 (18 months, DoD rows stripped). OLS r-squared 0.11 is below the 0.30 floor, so this issue draws observed months only — no point forecast, no policy tilt. The September peak ($57.79B) and October trough ($9.31B) are fiscal year-end and year-start, not market movement.
18 civilian months; last month $28.55B.
Civilian obligated $17.92B in 2025-03 through $28.55B in 2026-08 (18 months, DoD rows stripped). OLS r-squared 0.11 is below the 0.30 floor, so this issue draws observed months only — no point forecast, no policy tilt. The September peak ($57.79B) and October trough ($9.31B) are fiscal year-end and year-start, not market movement.
| Month | $ obligated | Contract actions | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03 | $17.92B | 181,701 | actual |
| 2025-04 | $19.28B | 197,134 | actual |
| 2025-05 | $24.52B | 178,432 | actual |
| 2025-06 | $23.55B | 168,880 | actual |
| 2025-07 | $31.65B | 198,889 | actual |
| 2025-08 | $28.58B | 204,940 | actual |
| 2025-09 | $57.79B | 252,167 | actual |
| 2025-10 | $9.31B | 81,748 | actual |
| 2025-11 | $23.05B | 87,021 | actual |
| 2025-12 | $31.32B | 166,373 | actual |
| 2026-01 | $21.25B | 166,571 | actual |
| 2026-02 | $28.43B | 165,716 | actual |
| 2026-03 | $35.84B | 180,016 | actual |
| 2026-04 | $32.15B | 193,762 | actual |
| 2026-05 | $24.24B | 171,392 | actual |
| 2026-06 | $35.88B | 175,015 | actual |
| 2026-07 | $41.26B | 192,460 | actual |
| 2026-08 | $28.55B | 184,356 | actual |
Civilian obligated $17.92B in 2025-03 through $28.55B in 2026-08 (18 months, DoD rows stripped). OLS r-squared 0.11 is below the 0.30 floor, so this issue draws observed months only — no point forecast, no policy tilt. The September peak ($57.79B) and October trough ($9.31B) are fiscal year-end and year-start, not market movement.
18 civilian months; last month $28.55B.
In 2026-08, on PIIDs at or above the $100,000 floor with physical funded/ceiling under $5B: obligated $12.82B, funded $13.72B, ceiling $23.46B (7,245 PIIDs). Scout cites obligated and funded. Most market reports quote ceiling. Unfiltered ceiling sums are not a market size.
Ceiling is 2.5x obligated at the 90th percentile.
In 2026-08, on PIIDs at or above the $100,000 floor with physical funded/ceiling under $5B: obligated $12.82B, funded $13.72B, ceiling $23.46B (7,245 PIIDs). Scout cites obligated and funded. Most market reports quote ceiling. Unfiltered ceiling sums are not a market size.
| Measure | Amount | Grain |
|---|---|---|
| Obligated | $12.82B | transaction sum |
| Funded | $13.72B | PIID max current total |
| Ceiling | $23.46B | PIID max all options |
| PIIDs | 7,245 | unique |
In 2026-08, on PIIDs at or above the $100,000 floor with physical funded/ceiling under $5B: obligated $12.82B, funded $13.72B, ceiling $23.46B (7,245 PIIDs). Scout cites obligated and funded. Most market reports quote ceiling. Unfiltered ceiling sums are not a market size.
Ceiling is 2.5x obligated at the 90th percentile.
VA obligated $16.60B across 10,383 actions in 2026-07 and $5.18B across 9,151 in 2026-08. 3 agencies in fewer, larger; 1 in more, smaller. Dot area is current-month dollars. Labels mark agencies outside the IQR.
VA obligated -68.8% on -11.9% actions vs other civilian agencies.
VA obligated $16.60B across 10,383 actions in 2026-07 and $5.18B across 9,151 in 2026-08. 3 agencies in fewer, larger; 1 in more, smaller. Dot area is current-month dollars. Labels mark agencies outside the IQR.
| Agency | Δ% obligated | Δ% actions | 2026-08 $ | Quadrant |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HHS | +93.8% | +8.1% | $3.81B | more, larger |
| VA | -68.8% | -11.9% | $5.18B | fewer, smaller |
| Treasury | +51.4% | -16.6% | $881.6M | fewer, larger |
| NASA | +22.7% | -24.1% | $2.45B | fewer, larger |
| DHS | -37.8% | +4.3% | $4.18B | more, smaller |
| DOT | +20.6% | -16.5% | $1.37B | fewer, larger |
| GSA | -25.9% | -1.2% | $2.33B | fewer, smaller |
| DOE | -21.9% | -1.8% | $3.07B | fewer, smaller |
| DOJ | +5.0% | +6.6% | $775.5M | more, larger |
VA obligated $16.60B across 10,383 actions in 2026-07 and $5.18B across 9,151 in 2026-08. 3 agencies in fewer, larger; 1 in more, smaller. Dot area is current-month dollars. Labels mark agencies outside the IQR.
VA obligated -68.8% on -11.9% actions vs other civilian agencies.
DHS fell $2.54B; HHS fell $1.84B; VA rose $11.42B — but $1.81B of VA's 2026-08 is a single vendor.
2 of 3 biggest civilian buyers cut spend this month; one contract drove the growth.
DHS fell $2.54B; HHS fell $1.84B; VA rose $11.42B — but $1.81B of VA's 2026-08 is a single vendor.
| Agency | 2026-07 $ obligated | 2026-08 $ obligated | Delta $ obligated |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA | $16.60B | $5.18B | -$11.42B |
| DHS | $6.73B | $4.18B | -$2.54B |
| HHS | $1.97B | $3.81B | $1.84B |
| DOE | $3.92B | $3.07B | -$859.0M |
| GSA | $3.15B | $2.33B | -$814.3M |
| NASA | $2.00B | $2.45B | $453.7M |
| Treasury | $582.4M | $881.6M | $299.3M |
| DOT | $1.14B | $1.37B | $234.3M |
| DOJ | $738.7M | $775.5M | $36.9M |
DHS fell $2.54B; HHS fell $1.84B; VA rose $11.42B — but $1.81B of VA's 2026-08 is a single vendor.
2 of 3 biggest civilian buyers cut spend this month; one contract drove the growth.
Set-aside dollars fell to 12.62% of civilian spend while set-aside actions rose to 9.5% — more awards, smaller tickets. Excluding VA, set-aside dollar share rose 10.39% → 10.56%.
Set-aside programs ran more contracts for fewer dollars — 12.6% of spend.
Set-aside dollars fell to 12.62% of civilian spend while set-aside actions rose to 9.5% — more awards, smaller tickets. Excluding VA, set-aside dollar share rose 10.39% → 10.56%.
| Slice | 2026-07 $ share | 2026-07 action share | 2026-08 $ share | 2026-08 action share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set-aside (civilian) | 8.20% | 12.2% | 12.62% | 9.5% |
| Set-aside excluding VA | 10.39% | 11.4% | 10.56% | 8.6% |
Set-aside dollars fell to 12.62% of civilian spend while set-aside actions rose to 9.5% — more awards, smaller tickets. Excluding VA, set-aside dollar share rose 10.39% → 10.56%.
Set-aside programs ran more contracts for fewer dollars — 12.6% of spend.
SDVOSB obligations fell 48% and actions 15% in 2026-08. This coincides with the FY2026 NDAA goal reversion — timing only, not a demonstrated cause. VA is 90% of civilian SDVOSB dollars and 94% of the decline.
Service-disabled veteran-owned contract actions fell 15% at the VA in a single month.
SDVOSB obligations fell 48% and actions 15% in 2026-08. This coincides with the FY2026 NDAA goal reversion — timing only, not a demonstrated cause. VA is 90% of civilian SDVOSB dollars and 94% of the decline.
| Series | 2026-07 | 2026-08 | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Civilian SDVOSB | $842.9M | $1.22B | $ obligated |
| VA SDVOSB | $740.7M | $1.09B | $ obligated |
| VA SDVOSB actions | 2,182 | 1,849 | contract actions |
| VA share of civilian SDVOSB $ | 88% | 90% | percent |
SDVOSB obligations fell 48% and actions 15% in 2026-08. This coincides with the FY2026 NDAA goal reversion — timing only, not a demonstrated cause. VA is 90% of civilian SDVOSB dollars and 94% of the decline.
Service-disabled veteran-owned contract actions fell 15% at the VA in a single month.
Obligation data is complete through 2026-08-31 for civilian agencies. DoD FPDS is treated as complete through 2026-06-22 (90-day lag from the run date); announcements cover the gap but are ceilings, not obligations.
DoD contract obligations run roughly 90 days behind — an industry-wide FPDS lag.
Obligation data is complete through 2026-08-31 for civilian agencies. DoD FPDS is treated as complete through 2026-06-22 (90-day lag from the run date); announcements cover the gap but are ceilings, not obligations.
| Source | Status | Through |
|---|---|---|
| Obligations (civilian) | complete | 2026-08-31 |
| Obligations (DoD) | incomplete — 90-day FPDS lag | 2026-06-22 |
| Announcements | 100 rows (ceilings) | 2026-09 |
| Policy corpus | present | NDAA / SDVOSB query |
Obligation data is complete through 2026-08-31 for civilian agencies. DoD FPDS is treated as complete through 2026-06-22 (90-day lag from the run date); announcements cover the gap but are ceilings, not obligations.
DoD contract obligations run roughly 90 days behind — an industry-wide FPDS lag.
2 prior claims scored against this issue's windows from 2026-08: 2 held, 0 missed, 0 still open.
2 of 2 prior claims held.
2 prior claims scored against this issue's windows from 2026-08: 2 held, 0 missed, 0 still open.
| Claim | Verdict | Why |
|---|---|---|
| sdvosb-contraction | held | VA SDVOSB actions 1,849 stayed below the prior run-rate 1,981. |
| optum-concentration | held | No vendor cleared 10% of the later civilian month. |
2 prior claims scored against this issue's windows from 2026-08: 2 held, 0 missed, 0 still open.
2 of 2 prior claims held.
Movers — money
Civilian obligations were $28.55B in 2026-08 versus $41.26B in 2026-07 (-30.8%). Largest dollar declines: VA $16.60B → $5.18B; DHS $6.73B → $4.18B; DOE $3.92B → $3.07B; GSA $3.15B → $2.33B. Largest dollar increases: HHS $1.97B → $3.81B; NASA $2.00B → $2.45B; Treasury $582.4M → $881.6M; DOT $1.14B → $1.37B.
Concentration — capture read
Why it matters: a month that is one vendor is not a market. No vendor cleared 10% of civilian obligated in 2026-08. Key anchor: VA obligated $5.18B in 2026-08 vs $16.60B in 2026-07. Capture implication: if you are not on that vehicle or vendor tree, brief the ex-outlier run-rate; if you are, the print is a concentration risk, not a TAM expand.
Policy join
Temporal alignmentFY2026 NDAA (P.L. 119-60) SDVOSB / SDB goal language
P.L. 119-60 increased the SDVOSB goal from 3% to 5%; executive action had temporarily raised the SDB goal to 13% in FY2024 with a 15% target by 2025 before reverting toward the statutory 5%.
Accountability ledger
VA SDVOSB actions stay below the prior-month run-rate (1,981 in 2026-07, -41.8%).
The civilian print does not repeat a single-vendor month at $13.26B (35% of 2026-07).
Methodology and limitations
Windows are clean calendar months derived by subtracting overlapping lookback pulls (never a raw lookback result). Issue totals and the 18-month series use the same civilian-only series: DoD funding-agency rows are subtracted from each month. Data through 2026-08-31. Civilian-agency totals; DoD is incomplete for months inside the 90-day FPDS lag. The print is the 9-agency civilian roster; VA is the standing lens on each issue, usually the civilian buyer that can move the month with one contract. Scout reports transaction obligated and PIID-max funded. Ceiling is PIID-max base and all options and is not summed into obligated totals. Percent change is omitted when the base is under $1,000,000. Fitted trendlines require 18 civilian-only months and OLS r-squared at or above 0.30; below that floor, observed months only. No policy tilt.
What we're watching
VA SDVOSB actions stay below the prior-month run-rate (1,849 in 2026-08, -15.3%).
Falsified if: A later clean month with VA SDVOSB actions at or above the prior-month count.
Frequently asked questions
Why is DoD missing from August 2026 federal contract data?
DoD FPDS for this issue is complete through 2026-06-22; August 2026 figures are civilian-agency only because of the 90-day FPDS delay.
Why does this issue focus on VA?
The print is the 9-agency civilian roster; VA is the standing lens on each issue, usually the civilian buyer that can move the month with one contract.
How much did civilian agencies obligate in August 2026?
Civilian agencies obligated $28.55B across 184,356 actions in August 2026.
Did VA SDVOSB actions go up or down in August 2026?
VA SDVOSB actions were 1,849 in August 2026, -15.3% from the prior month.
What is the set-aside share of civilian dollars in August 2026?
Named set-aside pools were 12.62% of civilian obligated dollars in August 2026.
Does this issue forecast next quarter?
No point forecast: OLS r-squared is 0.11, below the 0.30 floor, so the issue reports observed months only.
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