SCOUT Signal
SCOUT Signal · August 2026
Charles Sanders, PrimeRFP ·
Civilian-agency onlyDoD FPDS incomplete (90-day lag)Data through 2026-07-31
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LinkedInHeadline numbers
$37.71B
Civilian obligated
177,343
Civilian actions
$13.26B
Largest single award · 35% of civilian 2026-07
The month in brief
Civilian agencies obligated $37.71B in 2026-07, +5.5% from 2026-06. Nearly all of the increase is one contract: Optum's $13.26B VA Community Care award, 35% of the month by itself. Excluding it, civilian obligations were $24.46B. Meanwhile VA's service-disabled veteran-owned contract actions fell 41.8%. The same agency, the same month, the large-vendor lane expanding while the small-business lane contracted. Figures are civilian-agency obligations through 2026-07-31; DoD FPDS for this window is labeled incomplete.
Charts
Civilian obligated $15.25B in 2025-02 through $37.71B in 2026-07 (18 months, DoD rows stripped). OLS r-squared 0.09 is below the 0.30 floor, so this issue draws observed months only — no point forecast, no policy tilt. The September peak ($57.76B) and October trough ($9.30B) are fiscal year-end and year-start, not market movement.
18 civilian months; last month $37.71B.
Civilian obligated $15.25B in 2025-02 through $37.71B in 2026-07 (18 months, DoD rows stripped). OLS r-squared 0.09 is below the 0.30 floor, so this issue draws observed months only — no point forecast, no policy tilt. The September peak ($57.76B) and October trough ($9.30B) are fiscal year-end and year-start, not market movement.
| Month | $ obligated | Contract actions | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02 | $15.25B | 160,932 | actual |
| 2025-03 | $17.93B | 181,688 | actual |
| 2025-04 | $19.28B | 197,002 | actual |
| 2025-05 | $24.52B | 178,539 | actual |
| 2025-06 | $23.53B | 168,529 | actual |
| 2025-07 | $31.64B | 199,254 | actual |
| 2025-08 | $28.57B | 204,396 | actual |
| 2025-09 | $57.76B | 252,126 | actual |
| 2025-10 | $9.30B | 81,708 | actual |
| 2025-11 | $23.06B | 87,349 | actual |
| 2025-12 | $31.34B | 166,437 | actual |
| 2026-01 | $21.22B | 166,403 | actual |
| 2026-02 | $28.40B | 163,255 | actual |
| 2026-03 | $35.44B | 179,984 | actual |
| 2026-04 | $32.42B | 193,581 | actual |
| 2026-05 | $24.20B | 171,182 | actual |
| 2026-06 | $35.76B | 172,552 | actual |
| 2026-07 | $37.71B | 177,343 | actual |
Civilian obligated $15.25B in 2025-02 through $37.71B in 2026-07 (18 months, DoD rows stripped). OLS r-squared 0.09 is below the 0.30 floor, so this issue draws observed months only — no point forecast, no policy tilt. The September peak ($57.76B) and October trough ($9.30B) are fiscal year-end and year-start, not market movement.
18 civilian months; last month $37.71B.
In 2026-07, on PIIDs at or above the $100,000 floor with physical funded/ceiling under $5B: obligated $20.89B, funded $21.87B, ceiling $28.44B (5,555 PIIDs). Scout cites obligated and funded. Most market reports quote ceiling. Unfiltered ceiling sums are not a market size.
Ceiling is 3.0x obligated at the 90th percentile.
In 2026-07, on PIIDs at or above the $100,000 floor with physical funded/ceiling under $5B: obligated $20.89B, funded $21.87B, ceiling $28.44B (5,555 PIIDs). Scout cites obligated and funded. Most market reports quote ceiling. Unfiltered ceiling sums are not a market size.
| Measure | Amount | Grain |
|---|---|---|
| Obligated | $20.89B | transaction sum |
| Funded | $21.87B | PIID max current total |
| Ceiling | $28.44B | PIID max all options |
| PIIDs | 5,555 | unique |
In 2026-07, on PIIDs at or above the $100,000 floor with physical funded/ceiling under $5B: obligated $20.89B, funded $21.87B, ceiling $28.44B (5,555 PIIDs). Scout cites obligated and funded. Most market reports quote ceiling. Unfiltered ceiling sums are not a market size.
Ceiling is 3.0x obligated at the 90th percentile.
VA obligated $7.91B across 14,196 actions in 2026-06 and $15.13B across 9,560 in 2026-07. 1 agency in fewer, larger; 4 in more, smaller. Dot area is current-month dollars. Labels mark agencies outside the IQR.
VA was the only civilian agency in July 2026 to spend more money across fewer contracts.
VA obligated $7.91B across 14,196 actions in 2026-06 and $15.13B across 9,560 in 2026-07. 1 agency in fewer, larger; 4 in more, smaller. Dot area is current-month dollars. Labels mark agencies outside the IQR.
| Agency | Δ% obligated | Δ% actions | 2026-07 $ | Quadrant |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VA | +91.3% | -32.7% | $15.13B | fewer, larger |
| HHS | -59.6% | -12.3% | $1.74B | fewer, smaller |
| DOE | +39.4% | +21.3% | $3.81B | more, larger |
| DHS | -34.5% | +14.0% | $6.52B | more, smaller |
| DOT | -4.0% | +39.6% | $1.05B | more, smaller |
| NASA | -10.9% | -31.9% | $1.89B | fewer, smaller |
| Treasury | -14.9% | +13.8% | $527.3M | more, smaller |
| GSA | +17.3% | +5.1% | $2.72B | more, larger |
| DOJ | -12.7% | +1.5% | $656.3M | more, smaller |
VA obligated $7.91B across 14,196 actions in 2026-06 and $15.13B across 9,560 in 2026-07. 1 agency in fewer, larger; 4 in more, smaller. Dot area is current-month dollars. Labels mark agencies outside the IQR.
VA was the only civilian agency in July 2026 to spend more money across fewer contracts.
DHS fell $3.44B; HHS fell $2.57B; VA rose $7.22B — but $13.26B of VA's 2026-07 is a single vendor.
2 of 3 biggest civilian buyers cut July spend; one contract drove the growth.
DHS fell $3.44B; HHS fell $2.57B; VA rose $7.22B — but $13.26B of VA's 2026-07 is a single vendor.
| Agency | 2026-06 $ obligated | 2026-07 $ obligated | Delta $ obligated |
|---|---|---|---|
| VA | $7.91B | $15.13B | $7.22B |
| DHS | $9.96B | $6.52B | -$3.44B |
| HHS | $4.30B | $1.74B | -$2.57B |
| DOE | $2.74B | $3.81B | $1.08B |
| GSA | $2.32B | $2.72B | $401.4M |
| NASA | $2.12B | $1.89B | -$230.3M |
| DOJ | $751.7M | $656.3M | -$95.4M |
| Treasury | $619.6M | $527.3M | -$92.3M |
| DOT | $1.10B | $1.05B | -$43.6M |
DHS fell $3.44B; HHS fell $2.57B; VA rose $7.22B — but $13.26B of VA's 2026-07 is a single vendor.
2 of 3 biggest civilian buyers cut July spend; one contract drove the growth.
Civilian obligations rose $1.95B in 2026-07. Optum's $13.26B Community Care award is 35% of the month by itself.
One VA health contract was 35% of civilian federal obligations in July.
Civilian obligations rose $1.95B in 2026-07. Optum's $13.26B Community Care award is 35% of the month by itself.
| Step | $ obligated |
|---|---|
| 2026-06 civilian total | $35.76B |
| Net change excluding the outlier | -$11.30B |
| Optum award | $13.26B |
| 2026-07 civilian total | $37.71B |
| 2026-07 ex-Optum | $24.46B |
Civilian obligations rose $1.95B in 2026-07. Optum's $13.26B Community Care award is 35% of the month by itself.
One VA health contract was 35% of civilian federal obligations in July.
Set-aside dollars fell to 8.12% of civilian spend while set-aside actions rose to 12.2% — more awards, smaller tickets. Excluding VA, set-aside dollar share rose 7.81% → 10.43%.
Set-aside programs ran more contracts for fewer dollars — 8.1% of spend.
Set-aside dollars fell to 8.12% of civilian spend while set-aside actions rose to 12.2% — more awards, smaller tickets. Excluding VA, set-aside dollar share rose 7.81% → 10.43%.
| Slice | 2026-06 $ share | 2026-06 action share | 2026-07 $ share | 2026-07 action share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Set-aside (civilian) | 9.09% | 10.8% | 8.12% | 12.2% |
| Set-aside excluding VA | 7.81% | 8.9% | 10.43% | 11.3% |
Set-aside dollars fell to 8.12% of civilian spend while set-aside actions rose to 12.2% — more awards, smaller tickets. Excluding VA, set-aside dollar share rose 7.81% → 10.43%.
Set-aside programs ran more contracts for fewer dollars — 8.1% of spend.
SDVOSB obligations fell 36% and actions 42% in 2026-07. This coincides with the FY2026 NDAA goal reversion — timing only, not a demonstrated cause. VA is 87% of civilian SDVOSB dollars and 97% of the decline.
Service-disabled veteran-owned contract actions fell 42% at the VA in a single month.
SDVOSB obligations fell 36% and actions 42% in 2026-07. This coincides with the FY2026 NDAA goal reversion — timing only, not a demonstrated cause. VA is 87% of civilian SDVOSB dollars and 97% of the decline.
| Series | 2026-06 | 2026-07 | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Civilian SDVOSB | $1.08B | $720.5M | $ obligated |
| VA SDVOSB | $972.5M | $625.8M | $ obligated |
| VA SDVOSB actions | 3,402 | 1,981 | contract actions |
| VA share of civilian SDVOSB $ | 90% | 87% | percent |
SDVOSB obligations fell 36% and actions 42% in 2026-07. This coincides with the FY2026 NDAA goal reversion — timing only, not a demonstrated cause. VA is 87% of civilian SDVOSB dollars and 97% of the decline.
Service-disabled veteran-owned contract actions fell 42% at the VA in a single month.
Obligation data is complete through 2026-07-31 for civilian agencies. DoD FPDS is treated as complete through 2026-05-19 (90-day lag from the run date); announcements cover the gap but are ceilings, not obligations.
DoD contract obligations run roughly 90 days behind — an industry-wide FPDS lag.
Obligation data is complete through 2026-07-31 for civilian agencies. DoD FPDS is treated as complete through 2026-05-19 (90-day lag from the run date); announcements cover the gap but are ceilings, not obligations.
| Source | Status | Through |
|---|---|---|
| Obligations (civilian) | complete | 2026-07-31 |
| Obligations (DoD) | incomplete — 90-day FPDS lag | 2026-05-19 |
| Announcements | 80 rows (ceilings) | 2026-08 |
| Policy corpus | present | NDAA / SDVOSB query |
Obligation data is complete through 2026-07-31 for civilian agencies. DoD FPDS is treated as complete through 2026-05-19 (90-day lag from the run date); announcements cover the gap but are ceilings, not obligations.
DoD contract obligations run roughly 90 days behind — an industry-wide FPDS lag.
0 prior claims scored. First claims logged this month: sdvosb-contraction, optum-concentration, dod-completeness.
We publish what we got wrong and why.
0 prior claims scored. First claims logged this month: sdvosb-contraction, optum-concentration, dod-completeness.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Open claims | sdvosb-contraction, optum-concentration, dod-completeness |
| Reviews | 0 |
0 prior claims scored. First claims logged this month: sdvosb-contraction, optum-concentration, dod-completeness.
We publish what we got wrong and why.
Movers — money
Civilian obligations were $37.71B in 2026-07 versus $35.76B in 2026-06 (+5.5%). Largest dollar declines: DHS $9.96B → $6.52B; HHS $4.30B → $1.74B; NASA $2.12B → $1.89B; DOJ $751.7M → $656.3M. Largest dollar increases: VA $7.91B → $15.13B; DOE $2.74B → $3.81B; GSA $2.32B → $2.72B. One vendor, OPTUM PUBLIC SECTOR SOLUTIONS INC, was $13.26B in 2026-07 — more than 10% of the civilian month. The paired ex-outlier total is $24.46B.
Policy join
Temporal alignmentFY2026 NDAA (P.L. 119-60) SDVOSB / SDB goal language
P.L. 119-60 increased the SDVOSB goal from 3% to 5%; executive action had temporarily raised the SDB goal to 13% in FY2024 with a 15% target by 2025 before reverting toward the statutory 5%.
Accountability ledger
Issue #1 has no prior months to score. The ledger is public; misses will be labeled.
Methodology and limitations
Windows are clean calendar months derived by subtracting overlapping lookback pulls (never a raw lookback result). Issue totals and the 18-month series use the same civilian-only series: DoD funding-agency rows are subtracted from each month. Data through 2026-07-31. Civilian-agency totals; DoD is incomplete for months inside the 90-day FPDS lag. Scout reports transaction obligated and PIID-max funded. Ceiling is PIID-max base and all options and is not summed into obligated totals. Percent change is omitted when the base is under $1,000,000. Fitted trendlines require 18 civilian-only months and OLS r-squared at or above 0.30; below that floor, observed months only. No policy tilt.
What we're watching
VA SDVOSB actions stay below the prior-month run-rate (1,981 in 2026-07, -41.8%).
Falsified if: A later clean month with VA SDVOSB actions at or above the prior-month count.
The civilian print does not repeat a single-vendor month at $13.26B (35% of 2026-07).
Falsified if: Another vendor clearing 10% of a later civilian month, or the same vendor repeating.
DoD FPDS completeness remains lagged; this issue treats DoD as complete through 2026-05-19.
Falsified if: A later issue where DoD obligated totals for this window match civilian completeness.
Frequently asked questions
Why is DoD missing from July 2026 federal contract data?
DoD FPDS for this issue is complete through 2026-05-19; July 2026 figures are civilian-agency only because of the 90-day FPDS delay.
How much did civilian agencies obligate in July 2026?
Civilian agencies obligated $37.71B across 177,343 actions in July 2026.
What share of July 2026 civilian dollars went to one vendor?
Optum obligated $13.26B, 35% of civilian July 2026.
Did VA SDVOSB actions go up or down in July 2026?
VA SDVOSB actions were 1,981 in July 2026, -41.8% from the prior month.
What is the set-aside share of civilian dollars in July 2026?
Named set-aside pools were 8.12% of civilian obligated dollars in July 2026.
Does this issue forecast next quarter?
No point forecast: OLS r-squared is 0.09, below the 0.30 floor, so the issue reports observed months only.
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