PrimeRFP Insights
VETS 26, Decoded: 5 Signals Every Federal Small Business Should Act On
We read all 41 presenter decks from VETS 26 (NVSBC, New Orleans, June 2026). Small-business contracting just fell for the first time in a decade, the FAR is being rewritten, and CMMC hits Nov 10. Here are the five signals — and the one thread connecting them.
I went back through every presenter deck and handout shared at VETS 26 this month — all 41 of them, from Deltek's market outlook to CMMC, the FAR overhaul, capital access, and capture coaching. I was looking for the consensus. Not the agenda, the signal: what does the room actually believe is true about this market right now? Five themes surfaced, in different rooms, from agencies and attorneys and former evaluators who had never coordinated their slides. And underneath all five was one thread, which I will get to.
1. The Great Redistribution — a record market that left small business behind
Deltek's Kevin Plexico opened with numbers that should stop you cold. 2025 was a record federal year — yet small-business contracting declined for the first time in over a decade, the count of unique prime contractors fell for the eighth straight year, and barely 40% of firms grew their prime work (a 15-year low). Growth concentrated in Defense & Aerospace while Professional Services and R&D contracted. The pie grew; it grew in fewer hands.
What it means for capture: Knowing which segments are still growing — by NAICS, PSC, agency and set-aside, with year-over-year trend — is how a firm redeploys toward growth instead of defending shrinking ground.
Source: Plexico (Deltek), “Outlook for Small Business Amidst Sea Change”; Reaves, “Legal Update 2026”; DOE OSBP.
2. Policy whiplash — the FAR overhaul and the fixed-price default
The Revolutionary FAR Overhaul is shifting federal contracting from rules-based to principles-based, with greater contracting-officer discretion and a four-year sunset on non-statutory provisions. The April 30, 2026 executive order makes fixed-price the default award type — putting an estimated $263B of cost-reimbursement spend in scope and shifting performance risk onto contractors. The 8(a) program is in open upheaval. Vehicles are consolidating under Best-in-Class. The ground keeps moving.
What it means for capture: Whoever sees the change first — and knows which of their recompetes and vehicles are exposed — gets to act while everyone else is still reading the executive order.
Source: VA “RFO Implementation & Impacts”; Plexico (Deltek); Reaves; NewTHINK Solutions.
3. Compliance is now the cost of entry — CMMC headlines, but it is broader
After November 10, 2026, most applicable Level 2 contracts require third-party CMMC certification — an estimated 80,000 defense-industrial-base contractors facing $30K-$90K+ assessments and six-to-fifteen-month prep timelines. Layer on indirect-rate discipline (DCAA, TINA, False Claims Act exposure), M&A recertification cliffs, and anti-DEI clause flow-downs, and compliance has stopped being a differentiator. It is a gate you clear before you are allowed to compete.
What it means for capture: The strategic question is no longer “can we comply?” — it is “which opportunities are worth pointing our finite compliance and capital budget at?”
Source: Hair (Cyzium), “CMMC Is Here”; Tenney (FL APEX); Arce (GRF CPAs); PilieroMazza.
4. Access is not revenue — the vehicle and pipeline-discipline gap
The most-repeated line of the conference, in a dozen voices: getting on the Schedule is the starting line, not the finish line. GSA's own data shows roughly half of MAS holders never meet even the modest sales minimum. Winners pick two or three vehicles matched to real demand, run a disciplined bid/no-bid pipeline, and “win before the RFP drops” through propensity analysis and incumbent research — instead of waiting on the portal and bidding everything.
What it means for capture: Propensity-to-buy by agency, the incumbent and pricing baseline, and a ranked recompete pipeline are the literal mechanics of winning before the solicitation exists.
Source: GSA (Calhoun, Tulli); Foster (KeyToLife); Long (RSM Federal); NewTHINK; Lifecycle & IT-GWAC panels.
5. You win on evidence — not adjectives
The most useful sessions were run by people who used to score proposals. Their message was blunt: good companies lose because they do not make it easy to say yes — vague claims, more adjectives than metrics, no discriminators, not written to Section M. And the proposal is only the visible part. The same firms lose on the fundamentals around it: relationships built too late, teaming arranged after the RFP, and a working-capital gap that is structural because the government pays in arrears.
What it means for capture: Competitor profiles, award concentration, and a pre-built teaming bench turn “trust me” narrative into evidence and a partner list arranged before the bid.
Source: Hakala (Vericol, former $2B GSA portfolio); Atkinson (Cavalry); VA TAC COs; “Unlocking Capital” panel; OSDBU.
The thread underneath all five
Strip away the topics and every single theme reduces to the same competency: operating on current federal market data, instead of last year's assumptions. The market moved (Theme 1). The rules moved (Theme 2). Which means the compliance gates moved (Theme 3), the real demand moved (Theme 4), and the discriminators that win moved with them (Theme 5). The coaches called this discipline. The evaluators called it proof. The agencies called it being “procurement-ready.” They are all describing the same muscle — the ability to see the board clearly and early.
That muscle is hard to build on SAM.gov refreshes and a pipeline that lives in spreadsheets and “someone's head.” It is exactly what a federal intelligence layer is for.
What “seeing the board early” actually looks like
To make this concrete rather than abstract, we pointed SCOUT at a profile straight out of the VETS 26 room: the VA SDVOSB facility-services market — elevators & building equipment, firestopping, and security systems. In a single pass it sized the market, ranked the recompete pipeline, and surfaced the binding constraint a new entrant has to solve.
Figures: SCOUT prime-award index (USASpending, contracts > $100K), queried Jun 3, 2026. Aggregate, public market data.
Where the money is (and where it is growing)
| NAICS | Market | Obligated (36 mo) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| 238290 | Elevators / building equipment | $145.9M | +194% (2025 vs 2024) |
| 561621 | Security systems services | $50.0M | -5% |
| 238990 | Firestopping / specialty trades | $36.1M | +72% |
The binding constraint SCOUT flagged was not market size — it was federal past performance. For a first-time entrant, the on-ramp is the 297 sub-$1M recompetes in the pipeline (average award ~$375K in NAICS 238290), where an SDVOSB can build CPARS and pricing history before competing for the hospital-construction-bundled work above it. That is Theme 5 turned into a plan.
The recompete pipeline — “winning before the RFP drops,” as a dated worklist
Elevator Maintenance Service (EO14042)
$12.1MIncumbent: Elevated TechnologiesPoP end: Jul 31, 2026Renovate 8 elevators — Hines VA Hospital
$11.6MIncumbent: Modesto ManagementPoP end: Jan 8, 2028Renovate elevators (695-22-101)
$7.9MIncumbent: Armstrong ElevatorPoP end: Jun 25, 2027Electronic cylinder rekey — security & access control
$6.5MIncumbent: Patriot ConstructionPoP end: Sep 4, 2026
+ 441 more recompetes in this window · $750M+ aggregate value
VA NCO 8 (Bay Pines) · Hines · Togus · West Palm · Orlando · Miami · DoD installations · CBOCs …
SCOUT runs this on your NAICS, agencies, and set-asides — not someone else's.
Run your own landscape →Frequently Asked Questions
- What was the biggest takeaway from VETS 26 in 2026?
- That the federal small-business market is being redistributed while the rulebook is rewritten mid-game. Deltek reported that 2025 was a record federal year overall, yet small-business contracting declined for the first time in over a decade and the number of unique prime contractors fell for the eighth straight year. The firms that grew were the ones positioned in the right segments — Defense & Aerospace grew while Professional Services and R&D contracted.
- What changes are hitting federal small businesses in 2026?
- Four converging shifts dominated the conference: (1) the Revolutionary FAR Overhaul moving from rules-based to principles-based contracting; (2) an April 30, 2026 executive order making fixed-price the default award type, exposing an estimated $263B of cost-reimbursement spend; (3) CMMC Level 2 third-party certification becoming a condition of award after November 10, 2026; and (4) upheaval in the 8(a) program, with roughly a quarter of participants suspended.
- When does CMMC Level 2 certification become required?
- Per the conference's CMMC session, after November 10, 2026 most applicable Level 2 contracts will require third-party (C3PAO) certification as a condition of award. An estimated 80,000 defense-industrial-base contractors are affected; Level 2 assessments commonly run $30,000-$90,000+ with six-to-fifteen-month preparation timelines.
- Is being on a GSA Schedule or GWAC enough to win federal work?
- No — and this was the single most-repeated message at VETS 26. Getting on a vehicle is permission to compete, not revenue. GSA's own data shows roughly half of MAS Schedule holders never meet even the modest sales minimum. Winning requires picking two or three vehicles matched to actual demand, running a disciplined bid/no-bid pipeline, and identifying recompetes and incumbents before the solicitation is published.
- How were the figures in this article sourced?
- Conference figures are synthesized from a deep read of all 41 presenter decks and handouts shared at VETS 26 (NVSBC, New Orleans, June 1-4, 2026); each statistic cites its presenter. The market and recompete figures in the worked example come from PrimeRFP SCOUT's prime-award index (USASpending rollup, federal prime contracts over $100K) for the VA SDVOSB facility-services market, queried June 3, 2026.